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As a longtime college basketball analyst who's followed Georgia's program for over a decade, I find myself asking the same question every February: is this finally the year the Bulldogs break through? Watching Georgia basketball these past few seasons has been like watching someone repeatedly almost climb over a wall only to slide back down at the last moment. The potential is clearly there, but something always seems to derail their NCAA tournament aspirations.

I was analyzing their recent performance against Florida when it struck me how crucial momentum shifts are for bubble teams. Just last week, I watched an NLEX game where they went on a stunning 12-4 burst, with Policarpio even making that incredible banked shot three-pointer that completely flipped the game. That single stretch turned a 76-73 deficit into an 85-80 lead in what felt like mere moments. These explosive runs are exactly what separates tournament teams from the rest of the pack, and Georgia has shown flashes of being able to manufacture these game-changing sequences. When their offense clicks, particularly from beyond the arc, they can hang with anyone in the SEC.

The statistics tell an interesting story about Georgia's tournament chances this season. They're currently sitting at 16-9 overall with a 6-6 conference record, which puts them squarely on the bubble according to most projections I've seen. What gives me hope is their improved three-point shooting – they're hitting 36.8% from deep compared to last season's dismal 31.2%. That improvement matters more than people realize because in modern college basketball, the three-pointer is the great equalizer. I've always believed that teams who can shoot their way out of trouble have a better chance of making those crucial runs that impress the selection committee.

Their defensive efficiency rating of 97.3 places them in the middle of the SEC, but here's what the numbers don't show – this team fights harder in crucial moments than any Georgia squad I've covered since the 2015 tournament team. Just last Tuesday against Kentucky, they forced three consecutive turnovers in the final four minutes that nearly secured what would have been a season-defining victory. That kind of defensive intensity down the stretch is what tournament teams are made of, even if the overall defensive numbers don't jump off the page.

What really excites me about this year's squad is their balanced scoring. They have four players averaging double figures, which means they're not reliant on one star having a great night. This depth was evident in their comeback win against Missouri, where different players stepped up during critical stretches. Having multiple scoring options makes it harder for opponents to key in on stopping one player, and it allows for the kind of explosive runs we saw from NLEX in that remarkable comeback.

The road ahead won't be easy though. Georgia faces three ranked opponents in their final six games, including a brutal road trip to Tennessee. My projection is they'll need to win at least four of these final six games to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday. The good news? They control their own destiny in a way they haven't in recent years. The committee will be watching closely how they perform in these high-pressure situations, particularly whether they can string together those decisive runs that change games.

Having covered this program through multiple coaching changes and near-misses, I'm more optimistic this year than I've been in quite some time. There's a different energy around this team – a resilience that previous squads lacked. While nothing is guaranteed in March Madness conversations, something tells me we might finally see the Bulldogs dancing this year. The pieces are there, the schedule sets up favorably, and most importantly, this team has shown they can manufacture the kind of game-changing moments that make all the difference.